Back to nuclear status — can Ukraine create its own weapons

Ukraine is once again talking about the need to possess nuclear weapons. This time, President Zelenskyy has increased the degree of the discussion, stating that Ukraine should either be in NATO or with nuclear weapons. But they are not yet accepting it into the Alliance. Novyny.LIVE investigated whether Ukraine can create nuclear weapons and what its partners think about it.

Former nuclear arsenal of Ukraine

A third of a century ago, on October 24, 1991, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted a declaration on the nuclear-free status of Ukraine. And three years later, in December 1994, the Budapest Memorandum was signed, according to which Ukraine pledged to abandon nuclear weapons in favor of quickly forgotten security guarantees.

At the time of the collapse of the USSR in 1991, Ukraine had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. It had 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles, about 40 strategic bombers, and thousands of strategic and tactical nuclear warheads.

As part of its commitments, Ukraine has destroyed a significant part of its nuclear arsenal, including strategic bombers. For example, some of its Tu-160 and Tu-95 bombers have been physically destroyed — cut into pieces.

However, some of the aircraft were transferred to Russia as payment for the supply of energy resources, such as natural gas. Russia also received all the nuclear warheads on Ukrainian territory, which were transported to Russian factories, where they were dismantled and reprocessed.

The same fate befell intercontinental ballistic missiles, which were dismantled and destroyed with US money as part of a program that financed the dismantling of launchers, missile silos, and the elimination of other nuclear infrastructure. Thus, by the mid-1990s, Ukraine had no nuclear warheads or means of delivery left.

Does Ukraine want to create nuclear weapons?

After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, a debate regularly flares up in Ukrainian society about the rationality of abandoning its nuclear status.

As political scientist Vyacheslav Fesenko says, the essence of these conversations is usually primitive and consists in how bad it is that Ukraine abandoned nuclear weapons and how good it would be if we got nuclear weapons.

"All this "nuclear energy" eventually goes up in the air without any political consequences," Fesenko noted.

But last week, the discussion was heated up by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who, at a meeting with US presidential candidate Donald Trump, stated that, in accordance with the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine was given guarantees of protection, but they were not respected. Therefore, Ukraine should either be in NATO or have nuclear weapons.

"This document does not work. Are the agreements of other major partners with Russia working? No, they do not work. That is, these were not only agreements between Ukraine and Russia, but also between Ukraine and all partners. So, in general, all these agreements did not work. Of these countries, which of these countries suffered? And in a conversation with Donald Trump, I told him: either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons — and this is protection for us, or we must have some kind of alliance," Zelenskyy said about his last meeting with Trump.

The publication of the German newspaper "Bild", citing an unnamed Ukrainian official, who stated that Ukraine could create nuclear weapons in a matter of weeks.

"We have the materials, we have the knowledge. If there is an order, it will take us only a few weeks to get the first bomb. The West should think less about the Russian Federation's red lines and much more about our red lines," Bild quotes a source allegedly close to the defense industry.

However, almost immediately Zelenskyy denied the information that Ukraine seeks to regain the status of a nuclear state, but emphasized that in return it should receive a "security umbrella". "We are not asking to be given or returned nuclear weapons. We gave, but we received nothing. And we received only a full-scale war and many victims, so today we have only one way out. That is why we need NATO, because we do not have weapons that can stop Putin," Zelenskyy noted.

"A NATO umbrella is an impossible dream"

In fact, it turned out that Ukraine's accession to NATO, the creation of its own nuclear weapons today look like a very illusory prospect. As for NATO, despite all the statements that Ukraine will be a member of NATO, Western partners are not ready to offer Ukraine either NATO membership or an invitation to join the alliance. This was stated in an interview with "Politico" by Julianne Smith, the US permanent representative to NATO in the administration of President Joe Biden.

"The alliance has not reached the point where it is ready to offer Ukraine membership or an invitation," Smith said. Instead, according to her, Ukraine will continue to be brought closer to the Alliance.

According to retired Ukrainian Army colonel and military expert Oleg Zhdanov, in practice this statement means that NATO still plans to fight the Russian Federation with the hands of Ukrainians. "A NATO umbrella is a dream, the implementation of which does not have a specific date. In a political sense, NATO will not be able to fight the Russian Federation. Therefore, from a military point of view, Ukraine will never be in NATO. We need an alternative," Zhdanov considers.

In his opinion, NATO's goals today are to bring Ukraine up to NATO standards in all characteristics. Starting from the principles of maintaining an army, planning and ending with the conduct of hostilities using Western weapons. "They will keep Ukraine on the highest combat alert. So that the Russian Federation understands that in order to get to Warsaw, it must first somehow get to Kyiv. That's why they will keep us. It is beneficial for NATO to gradually weaken the Russian Federation with our hands," Zhdanov noted.

It is worth noting that the point about NATO membership is in the first place in President Zelenskyy's "Victory Plan". But after the meeting of the defense ministers of NATO member countries in Brussels, it became clear that there will be no immediate invitation.

As NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated after the two-day meeting, "Ukraine will join the alliance in the future," adding that there is complete unity in the alliance so that Ukraine wins the war. "I must say that the main focus of the discussion was on delivering huge military assistance to Ukraine," Rutte said, answering a journalist's question about the first point of Zelenskyy's plan.

At the same time, President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have also stated that they will not stop supporting Ukraine. However, the Chancellor added that NATO involvement in the war in Ukraine should be avoided. "We support Ukraine as much as possible. At the same time, we ensure that NATO does not become a party to the conflict, that this war does not lead to an even greater catastrophe," Scholz said.

In other words, this could mean that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO while hostilities with Russia continue.

Why Ukraine cannot create nuclear weapons

As for the creation of nuclear weapons, such statements look like fantasy. The fact is that, despite the significant arsenal of nuclear weapons that Ukraine inherited from the USSR, Ukraine has never produced nuclear weapons and does not have the corresponding technologies, Zhdanov tells us.

"Ukraine will not be able to create nuclear weapons. Yes, we have uranium. But there are no enrichment factories. Until 2010, Ukraine had about 90 kg of enriched uranium (enough to produce 2-3 nuclear warheads. — Author), which was stored in the research institute for scientific research. But Yanukovych gave it to the Russian Federation as soon as he took office," Zhdanov emphasized.

Another theoretical option is to buy technology from other countries that have nuclear weapons. But this option is not suitable for Ukraine. First, the nuclear weapons market simply does not exist, and secondly, it is unlikely that there will be a country that is ready to transfer technology to Ukraine.

"There are some countries that transfer technology. For example, like the Russian Federation to Iran or China or Russia to North Korea. But Western countries do not share technology. In general, such statements from a diplomatic point of view cause horror among partners. No one will allow Ukraine to obtain nuclear weapons today. Now the struggle is ongoing to limit Iran and prevent China from developing its nuclear potential. There is a problem with North Korea. And here Ukraine comes out and says, give us nuclear weapons..."  Zhdanov said, adding that Ukraine's Western partners are unlikely to be happy about a new member in the club of nuclear powers.

Moreover, according to Fesenko, the topic of nuclear weapons can potentially create problems in our relations with Western partners.

"If Ukraine follows the path of creating nuclear weapons, it will lead to a conflict of interests with our Western partners, and then we can forget about NATO and the European Union," the political scientist says.

But if Ukraine does not receive proper security guarantees, this may force the country to follow the nuclear path. And in this case, it is better to keep it a secret.

"If you want to get nuclear weapons, then do not talk about it anywhere, but do it in such a way that neither friends nor enemies know about it. And even if you have these weapons, you do not need to announce it to the whole world," Fesenko notes.

But before making nuclear weapons, in his opinion, it would be worth starting small and finally making at least gunpowder production. "Start small and with the most necessary. Israel, by the way, started the same way," Fesenko summed up.